Solar Stocks Commentary with J Peter Lynch -
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Solar Stocks Review - Monday 3-21-2011
J Peter Lynch
Summary
At this time the general market continues to stay in a higher risk zone. This does not mean that you cannot make money but that most of the money has usually been made at this stage. However, it is not uncommon for the market to stay in a higher risk zone for many months.
As a result, an investor has to be more cautious and take some more defensive actions. For example, sell stocks in your portfolio that are showing weakening relative strength to the market, tighten up your stop loss sell points and if you are more sophisticated, buy protective puts to hedge yourself.
However, the market has been climbing a "wall of worry" for a long time now, volatility has dramatically increased and the market has moved into its traditionally unfavorable season - May thru September approximately - additional reasons for caution.
Remember the two key rules from the legendary investor Warren Buffet on how to make money in the stock market:
- Never lose money*
- Never forget rule #1
Individual Stock Comments and Comments on our Solar Portfolio
Most of the stock s in the solar sector have fallen further behind the general market and have continued to weaken. Below are the latest comments on the 3 stocks remaining in our Solar Portfolio and the number of shares of each stock still held in the portfolio.
To date the portfolio is up approximately double the major industry averages 15% vs 7.25%.
JKS (500 shares) - Stock has recently showed strength and has given a new short term buy signal at $28.50. Falling below $25.50 would generate at sell signal for the remaining ½ of the position.
SOLR (1,000 shares) - Consistently the strongest solar stock and has given a short term buy signal at $11.50, it is the only stock in the portfolio that we have not sold any of our initial position of 1,000 shares.
TSL (500 shares) - weakest of the group, a move to $25.50 generated a sell of ½ of our position. A further move down to $25.00 would generate a sell signal on the balance of this position.
Looking at the table below you will see that both JKS and SOLR are the only major stocks that are significantly above both their 50 Day and 200 day moving averages**. With the exception of Sunpower Corp. (SPWRA) which received a recent offer for control of the company by the French oil company TOTAL.
**Remember that the 50 day MA is a short term indicator of technical strength and the 200 day MA is a long term indicator of strength. The optimal position for a stock to be in is ABOVE both these moving averages.
US Photovoltaic Related Companies as of the close on 5-13-2011
| Symbol | Name | Recent Price | 50 Day MA | 200 Day MA |
| ASTI | Ascent Solar Technologies, Inc. | 1.56 | 2.107 | 3.059 |
| CSIQ | Canadian Solar Inc. | 9.68 | 10.802 | 13.017 |
| CSUN | China Sunergy Company Ltd. | 3.3 | 3.873 | 4.276 |
| DSTI | DayStar Technologies Inc. | 0.79 | 0.89 | 1.523 |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | 2.48 | 2.428 | 1.584 |
| ENER | Energy Conversion Devices | 1.57 | 2.2 | 3.988 |
| ESLR | Evergreen Solar, Inc. | 1.08 | 1.535 | 3.322 |
| FSLR | First Solar, Inc. | 125.65 | 143.077 | 140.584 |
| HSOL | Hanwa Solar | 5.91 | 7.053 | 9.175 |
| JASO | JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd | 6.16 | 6.579 | 7.237 |
| JKS | JinkoSolar Holding Co. | 28.5 | 25.377 | 26.161 |
| LDK | LDK Solar Company Ltd. | 9.6 | 11.324 | 10.77 |
| RSOL | Real Goods Solar, Inc. | 2.53 | 2.509 | 2.731 |
| SOL | ReneSola, Ltd. | 8.25 | 9.126 | 9.973 |
| SOLR | GT Solar International Inc | 11.36 | 10.441 | 9.288 |
| SPIR | Spire Corporation | 4.28 | 4.366 | 4.848 |
| SPWRA | Sunpower Corporation | 21.23 | 17.295 | 14.483 |
| STP | Suntech Power Holdings | 8.52 | 8.926 | 8.827 |
| TSL | Trina Solar Limited | 25.35 | 27.534 | 26.37 |
| WEST | Akeena Solar, Inc. | 1.52 | 1.929 | 2.187 |
| WFR | MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. | 11.01 | 12.054 | 11.912 |
| YGE | Yingli Green Energy | 10.66 | 11.791 | 11.523 |
Keep in mind that there are two basic types of equity (stock) analysis. Below is a brief description of each and its primary purpose:
Fundamental Analysis - this is the analysis of the fundamental financial condition of the company to identify which stocks are stocks you may want to buy when the timing is right. This form of analysis will give you NO indication of the best time to buy the stock.
Technical Analysis - this form of analysis will tell you "when" to buy a stock. It will do this by showing you (in chart format) the basic interaction of supply and demand and when the two change and shift which will indicate a time to buy or a time to sell.
Mr. Lynch has worked, for 34 years as a Wall Street security analyst, an independent security analyst an investment banker and private investor in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and is regarded as an expert in this field. He was the contributing editor for 17 years to the Photovoltaic Insider Report, the leading publication in PV that was directed at industrial subscribers, such as major energy companies, utilities and governments around the world. He is currently a private investor and advisor to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at: SOLARJPL@aol.com. Please visit his website for the promotion of solar energy - www.sunseries.net
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