Solar Stocks Commentary with J Peter Lynch at Investorideas.com
http://www.investorideas.com/PL/
Current Status
Our portfolio currently has two remaining positions - CSIQ (600 shares) and LDK (500 shares). Of the two stocks LDK is the strongest as this time and in fact is the ONLY solar stock that is trading ABOVE both its 50 day moving average (short term positive) and its 200 day moving average (longer term positive).
The current status of the 2012 portfolio is an unrealized gain of 19.6% on the two positions remaining in the portfolio and a realized gain of 20.13% on the positions we have sold.
Since the date 1/11/2012 we started the portfolio the solar sector as a whole, including our portfolio stocks is down an average of -15.6% vs our portfolio gain of +20%.
The market in general during this period is UP an average of 6.94% with our solar portfolio outperforming by almost 300%.
Stop Loss Points
As a reminder below are the stop loss points I have selected based upon technical support levels in each stock. I have set these stop points very close, since, as I mentioned in the last article I did expect the markets to pull back due to the fact that they are short term overbought.
The stop loss points for the remaining stocks in our Solar Portfolio are.
CSIQ - $3.50
LDK - $5.25
Both of these stocks are approximately .25 cents from their stop points, so we will get quick sells or we will have to be patient to see if they turn around. If either of these stocks reaches these levels I would recommend selling that position.
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Remember - the number one rule of investing:
Minimize your LOSSES and Maximize your GAINS.
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Market Psychology
The HARDEST THING for investors to do is know when to sell. That is why you have to set specific, non-emotional prices to exit if things do not go right. You cannot allow your emotions to get involved and take over your thinking.
Markets fool the majority of investors by “Climbing a Wall of Worry” which is exactly what it is doing now. Once losses start and keep getting worse is when investors get on the “Slopes of Hope” and hope that their stock comes back – trust me, the “I hope my stock comes back” technique will NOT work. Trust in your system and follow it regardless of what you think “should happen”. Once you try to impose your will on your portfolio you will stop paying attention to what is most important - “what is” NOT what you think it should be.
Remember this system has enabled us to significantly outperform the rest of the solar sector and the general markets in 2010 and 2011:
Summary Performance
2010: Solar Portfolio outperforms markets by 310%
Solar Portfolio + 42.94%
Solar Industry Average -14.2%
Major Markets Average + 13.87%
2011: Solar Portfolio outperforms markets by 1,416%
Solar Portfolio + 17.56%
Solar Industry Average - 70.3%
Major Markets Average + 1.24%
General Market Comments
At the current time the market is still very extended above its 50 day moving average – a level which historically results in a pullback in the market closer to the 50 day moving average. As a result of this I have been setting our stop loss points very conservatively in order to make sure that when the correction comes we will still lock in healthy profits.
At this point the general market is STRONGER than the solar stocks as a whole, so when the market pulls back and corrects I would anticipate that our solar stocks will move down further than the market correction.
Keep in mind that periodic corrections are normal in the stock market – what is NOT normal is for the market to be sharply up, without a correction since October 2011. Background Analysis Notes
Keep in mind that there are two basic types of equity (stock) analysis. Below are a brief description of each and its primary purpose:
Fundamental Analysis - this is the analysis of the fundamental financial condition of a company to identify which stocks you may want to buy when the timing is right. This form of analysis will give you NO indication of the best time to buy a stock or sell a stock.
Technical Analysis - this form of analysis will tell you "when" to buy a stock and when to sell the stock. It will do this by showing you (in chart format) the basic interaction of supply and demand and when the two change and shift which will indicate a time to buy or a time to sell.
Mr. Lynch has worked, for 35 years as a Wall Street security analyst, an independent security analyst and private investor in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and is regarded as an expert in this field. He was the contributing editor for 17 years to the Photovoltaic Insider Report, an early publication in PV that was directed at industrial subscribers, such as major energy companies, utilities and governments around the world. He is currently a private investor and has from time to time been a financial/technology consultant to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at: SOLARJPL@aol.com. Please visit his website for the promotion of solar energy � www.sunseries.net.
Read Solar Stocks Commentary with J Peter Lynch at Investorideas.comhttp://www.investorideas.com/PL/
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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in the research published are those of the individual companies and writers and not necessarily those of Investorideas.com® or any of the industry sector portals. At the time of publication, writers may hold positions in the stocks or companies mentioned.http://www.investorideas.com/PL/Solar-Stocks-Review.asp
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