Point Roberts, South Salem, New York – March 14, 2011 - Investorideas.com, a leader in cleantech
stock research tools issues new solar stocks commentary for Monday March 14th, from solar contributor,
J. Peter Lynch.
Solar Stocks Commentary with J Peter Lynch -
Read other articles, Exclusively for InvestorIdeas.com and Renewableenergystocks.com: http://
www.renewableenergystocks.com/PL/
An overall summary and table are below which gives a current snap shot of the “technical picture” of
each of our solar stocks. This is updated weekly and also whenever there are any significant changes.
Summary
Note: At this time there is a general market comment – continue to advise caution at this time.
As I cautioned in early February 2011, the market is VERY over extended and the probability of, at least,
a correction in the range of 10% to 15% was far greater than any upside gains. At that point it was advised
that no new positions should be taken.
Individual Stock Comments
A large number of our stocks moved DOWN in my rating system and many more stocks are now rate
Weak “W”.
FSLR – downgraded from N to W. Stock has been very volatile and numerous analysts have issued
negative opinions on the stock. Generated a short term sell signal at $158 and broke through long term
support at $146.
HSOL – was also at a critical long term support level. The stock closed below long term support at $8.00
and triggered a sell signal.
JASO – recently it gave up all of its gain in the recent weak market. JASO is at a critical juncture. A
close below $6.00, which is long term support, would indicate further weakness and would trigger a sell
signal for the balance of the position.
JKS – a sell signal was generated at $25, which would result, in my system, of selling 50% of your
position. It then generated another sell signal at $22, which would call for selling 50% of the remaining
position. A long term sell signal would occur at $19.5.
LDK – an initial sell signal at $12 with a long term signal generated at $9.
SOL - Long term support @ $7.5 - Sell @ $7.
SPWRA - Long term support @$13.5 – sell @$13.
TSL – Short term sell @ $25- long term support @ $20.
WFR- Long term support @ $11.5 - sell @ $11.
YGE – Sell @ $11.
Market Comment - Caution Advised
Currently the market is flashing serious “red flags” warning investors to be cautious at this time,
the most serious being the dramatic overextension of the S&P 500 over its 200 day moving
average:
In fact, the current overbought condition is more extreme than any important market top
in the last 10 years – certainly a significant reason to be very cautious at this juncture in the
market. Very few good things have ever happen from these levels historically.
The number one rule of investing is: Not to lose money. The best way to accomplish this is to
adhere to a system that you have confidence in and let it guide you so as to let your profits run
and to cut your losses quickly. This time of increase market volatility is certainly not the time to
initiate positions unless you are a shorter term trader and watch the market very closely.
Solar Stock Review as of the close on Friday 11 March 2011
Symbol
ASTI
CSIQ
CSUN
DSTI
EMKR
ENER
ESLR
FSLR
HSOL
JASO
JKS
LDK
RSOL
SOL
SOLR
SPIR
Recent Price
2.62
11.05
4.1
1.03
2.42
2.48
1.68
139.74
7.5
6.31
22.61
10.64
2.48
8.71
9.73
4.58
50 Day MA
3.325
14.128
4.496
1.432
1.904
4.157
2.505
149.749
8.73
7.336
26.552
12.555
2.713
10.468
10.723
5.121
Weekly
Momentum
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Trend
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
# Weeks
2
1
1
5
0
9
1
2
1
1
2
2
3
2
5
1
RS Sig
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Sell
SPWRA
STP
TSL
WEST
WFR
YGE
Table Keys:
50 Day Moving Average (MA) - this is a short term measure of a stock’s current technical picture. If the
current price is above the 50 day MA it is a positive indication and if it is below the 50 Day MA it is a
negative indication.
Overall Trend – this is the overall longer term trend of the stock (Positive + or Negative -). When solar
stocks were badly underperforming the market almost all our solar stocks were in negative trends - the
stocks that turn to a positive trend first are usually the strongest stocks relative to the group as a whole.
Weekly Momentum (Mom.) and Number of weeks positive or negative - this is a measure of the short
term momentum of a stock. It is derived by comparing the one week moving average (MA) of the stock
to the five week moving average. When the one week MA goes ABOVE the 5 week MA the weekly
momentum turns positive, when it goes BELOW the 5 week MA the weekly momentum turns negative.
Momentum, on average, stays positive or negative for between 6 and 8 weeks. So a stock that has been
negative for 1 or 2 weeks will usually have at least a few more weeks of negative action to come. This
would be useful, for example, if someone wanted to buy a particular stock and its momentum just shifted
to negative, they will likely be able to buy the stock lower if they are patient and wait for a pullback in the
price of the stock.
Relative Strength – this is a measure of the strength of an individual stock relative to a widely followed
index – in this case the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500). If the relative strength is “buy” this means
that the individual stock is stronger relative to the index and vice versa.
Rating – this a my technical rating on each of the solar stocks after reviewing the technical indicators
(momentum and trend) plus a number of additional indicators (monthly momentum, strength relative to
the S&P 500 stock index, overbought/oversold status etc.) to arrive at a comparative rating as to how
each stock stands technically. N = neutral, W = weak and S = strong. An asterisk on the rating indicates a
change of rating for that stock.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Background Notes
Keep in mind that there are two basic types of equity (stock) analysis. Below is a brief description of each
and its primary purpose:
Fundamental Analysis – this is the analysis of the fundamental financial condition of the company and
will identify which stocks are stocks you may want to buy when the timing is right. This form of analysis
14.27
8.04
24.23
0.53
12.02
10.5
15.199
9.075
26.922
0.533
12.541
11.453
+
-
+
-
+
-
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
Neg
1
1
1
4
1
1
Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
will give you NO indication of the best time to buy the stock.
Technical Analysis – this form of analysis will tell you “when” to buy a stock. It will do this by showing
you (in chart format) the basic interaction of supply and demand and when the two change and shift
which will indicate a time to buy or a time to sell.
Mr. Lynch has worked, for 34 years as a Wall Street security analyst, an independent security analyst and private
investor in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the
renewable energy sector since 1977 and is regarded as an expert in this field. He was the contributing editor for 17
years to the Photovoltaic Insider Report, an early publication in PV that was directed at industrial subscribers, such
as major energy companies, utilities and governments around the world. He is currently a private investor and has
from time to time been a financial/technology consultant to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at:
SOLARJPL@aol.com. Please visit his website for the promotion of solar energy – www.sunseries.net.
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Electric Vehicle Stocks:
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